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Woo hoo!!!!

CHI got TAs for folks who were logged in 9/19 through 10/11. The CCAA slipped my LID in with the bunch and the date on which my dossier was officially logged in was 11/11.

An on-line acquaintance of mine is, perhaps even more than me, somewhat obsessed with tracking when TAs for waiting children arrive. Based upon recent statistics, she has written a little tool that gives statistical probabilities on weeks TAs for a particular LID will arrive. Based upon my assumption of a LID of 11/14, these were my TA receipt probabilities:

12/26/05 – 2.9%

01/02/06 – 7.7%

01/09/06 – 17.1%

01/16/06 – 31.8%

01/23/06 – 50.0%

01/30/06 – 68.2%

02/06/06 – 82.9%

02/13/06 – 92.3%

02/20/06 – 97.1%

The short end of the wait on this last set of TAs came in at about 65 days (the short end in the last batch, which arrived on 11/15, was 60 days). That's a bit on the low end in the probability scale above, but puts us with an estimate of the week of January 16th. It'd be a nice birthday present. I do still have dreams that TA might come this year, it'd also make a very nice Christmas present.

As I like to warn people, I'm in my crazy time period of the wait.

This entry was posted on Thursday, December 15th, 2005 at 4:26 am and is filed under Family, Nicky, Adoption. You can follow any responses to this entry through the RSS 2.0 feed. You can skip to the end and leave a response. Pinging is currently not allowed.